home submit paper guide for authors contact us register search archive current issue journal info
   [Home ] [Archive]    
Main Menu
Home::
Journal Information::
Articles archive::
For Authors::
Registration::
Contact us::
Site Facilities::
Editorial Workflow::
::
Search in website

Advanced Search
..
Receive site information
Enter your Email in the following box to receive the site news and information.
..
:: Volume 12, Issue 2 (4-2024) ::
2024, 12(2): 1-23 Back to browse issues page
A Monte Carlo simulation to identify the effect of delays in construction project scheduling
M. Abolghasemian , M. R. Nasiri Janagha , M. Vaseei , A. Pourghader Chobar , U. M. Modibbo
Department of Management, Sohrevardi Higher Education Institute, Qazvin, Iran
Abstract:   (191 Views)
Construction projects are inherently complex and subject to various uncertainties and delays that can significantly impact their schedule and overall success. Delays in construction projects can arise from a multitude of factors such as weather conditions, material shortages, labor issues, or unexpected design changes. These delays not only disrupt the planned timeline but can also lead to cost overruns and conflicts among project stakeholders. An efficient construction industry is a prerequisite for the development of the construction process. In this regard, this paper aims to identify the most common, severe, and important causes of schedule delay and its effect on construction projects. Therefore, the main contribution of current study offers a systematic approach to assessing and managing risks associated with delays in construction projects. By quantifying the likelihood of different delay scenarios, project managers can make informed decisions to mitigate risks and optimize scheduling strategies. The main objective during the construction phases is to complete the project on time and within the budget and meet the set quality requirements and other specifications simultaneously. For this purpose, a framework to identify and prioritize delays and critical activities is proposed in current study and an attempt is made to implement it using the framework introduced in a real case study on the freeway projects of Iran. Accordingly, first, several delays known in free construction projects were considered using the available theoretical resources, they were then subjected to the judgment of experts employing the Delphi technique so 14 delays were identified in the first round of implementing the Delphi technique. Subsequently, a schedule was designed for freeway projects consisting of 13 activities. In the continuation of this research, a questionnaire was prepared to collect information, and 48 answer sheets were carefully completed and received by experts. Then, by running the second round of Delphi, five critical delays were selected among the identified delays, and the statistical delay functions of each of them were estimated using Decision Tools software. Then, by designing 19 scenarios, the effect of each of the critical delays in the activities was reported based on the designed scenarios. Also, for further analysis, nine and five scenarios were designed based on the most important delay factors on critical activities and two important activities, respectively; and using the PERT technique, the certain value of increase in activity time was calculated based on different probabilities. According to the reported PERT, the scenarios were prioritized in each step.

 
Keywords: Delay, Critical Activity, Scenario, Delphi Technique, PERT Technique
Full-Text [PDF 715 kb]   (91 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: General
Received: 2023/12/15 | Accepted: 2024/02/10
Send email to the article author

Add your comments about this article
Your username or Email:

CAPTCHA


XML     Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Abolghasemian M, Nasiri Janagha M R, Vaseei M, Pourghader Chobar A, Modibbo U M. A Monte Carlo simulation to identify the effect of delays in construction project scheduling. International Journal of Applied Operational Research 2024; 12 (2) :1-23
URL: http://ijorlu.liau.ac.ir/article-1-665-en.html


Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Volume 12, Issue 2 (4-2024) Back to browse issues page
ژورنال بین المللی پژوهش عملیاتی International Journal of Applied Operational Research - An Open Access Journal
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.05 seconds with 37 queries by YEKTAWEB 4660