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Designing a dynamic model for managing the resources and expenditures of the social security organization using grounded theory and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM)
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S. Abdollahi Shemami   , S. Balaei Pakdehi , E. Chirani |
| Department of Industrial Management, Ra.c., Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran |
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Abstract: (24 Views) |
| This study aims to develop a dynamic model for managing the resources and expenditures of Iran’s Social Security Organization by integrating grounded theory and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches. The research identifies and ranks causal, contextual, and intervening variables affecting the organization’s financial balance. Methodologically, the study is applied in purpose and descriptive-survey in nature. The statistical population is divided into two groups: the qualitative phase includes interviews with experts and policymakers, while the quantitative phase involves senior, middle, and expert-level managers of the organization. A purposive and snowball sampling method was used to select 15 experts. The qualitative findings led to the identification and categorization of key variables, while the quantitative phase applied the fuzzy COCOSO method to rank the factors and outcomes. Results indicate that contextual factors are the most influential in shaping the organization’s financial dynamics, followed by intervening conditions and causal factors. Additionally, a system dynamics approach was employed to simulate and analyze three policy scenarios: Gradual increase in insurance premiums for government-supported workshops by 1% annually from 2023to 2033, projected to yield a positive return of 245,000 billion rials per year. Reduction of healthcare costs through direct treatment models, ISO-standard equipment procurement, and recruitment of skilled personnel, expected to generate 32 trillion rials in savings by 2023. And Workforce retention support through shared unemployment benefit payments (50% by the fund, 50% by employers), with partial government reimbursement, projected to improve the unemployment fund’s balance by 13 trillion rials by 2033. |
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| Keywords: Resources and Expenditures, Grounded Theory, Fuzzy COCOSO, Social Security Organization, System Dynamics Model |
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Full-Text [PDF 805 kb]
(7 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/01/14 | Accepted: 2025/03/22 | Published: 2025/07/1
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